Some reports indicate that the world will run out specific mined resources at some point in the near future.
But, there might be a range of reasons that this isn’t the case.
In the guide below, we outline some of these reasons, and other relevant information, such as a list of the different factors that can impact our ability to use and extract the remaining resources, as well as the supply of these resources.
Summary – Why We Might Not Run Out Of Some Mined Resources
Examples Of Mined Resources
Minerals, metal ores, fossil fuels, and other raw materials extracted from the Earth
Resources vs Reserves – There’s A Difference
We outline this difference in the guide below
Why We Might Never Run Out Of Some Mined Resources
1. Exploration Can Lead To Newly Discovered Resources
2. Proven Reserves Can Stay Stable Or Increase Over Time As Discovered Resources Are Converted To Proven Reserves
3. Proven Reserves Can Stay Stable Or Increase Over Time As New Technology Or New Extraction Processes Are Developed
4. Unconventional Resources & Non Primary Resources May Be Used For Production For Some Resources
5. The Right Ore Production Factories Might Enable Low Quality Ores To Be Part Of Production
6. Some Resources Can Be Used More Efficiently At The Consumption Stage
7. Some Materials & Resource Can Be Recovered, Recycled (Or Re-Purposed), & Re-Used
8. Substitute Resources & Materials Exist For Some Resources
9. Alternatives Exist For The Applications Some Resources Are Used For
10. Price Increases May Ensure A Resource Is Available At A Higher Price Instead Of Physically Running Out Or Depleting Past A Certain Level
11. Estimates On How Many Years Worth Of Specific Resource Are Left Are Estimates Only, & Not Definitive
What Might Be Some Legitimate Concerns About Resource Management Going Into The Future
1. The Price At Which A Resource Can Be Purchased Or Consumed May Be Unaffordable For Some
2. Some Existing & Newly Discovered Resources Are Currently Physically Inaccessible, & May Never Be Accessible
3. Some Existing & Newly Discovered Resources Aren’t Currently Economically Feasible To Extract Or Produce, & May Never Be
4. Other Miscellaneous Reasons
Factors That Might Impact Our Ability To Extract & Use Resources In The Future
We list these factors in the guide below
The Difference Between The Amount Of Resources Left, & The Supply Of Resources In The Economy
We describe this difference in the guide below
Are We Running Out Of Resources On Earth?
In this guide, we discuss whether we might actually be running out of resources on Earth.
Mineral Resources vs Reserves – Understanding The Difference
Resources
Resources are the total amount of resource that exist on Earth – both discovered and undiscovered
Resources are discovered via exploration and testing. But, it can cost millions, tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions of dollars (and also time), to do qualification, testing and exploration for resources.
In addition to conventional resources, unconventional resources also exist for some resources (with unconventional oil resources, and unconventional natural gas resources being two example)
From copperalliance.org: ‘Resources are far larger and include reserves, discovered deposits that are potentially profitable and undiscovered deposits predicted based on preliminary geological surveys’
[Using the example of phosphate rock] … “resources” refers to estimated amounts of such a grade or quality that they have reasonable prospects for economic extraction (wikipedia.org)
[We can’t ever prove how much of a certain metal or mineral is left unless we physically explore every piece of soil in the earth – on land and in the ocean] (bbc.com)
Reserves
Resources that are assessed as being physically accessible with today’s technology and extraction processes, and that are economically feasible to extract, can be converted into proven reserves.
Proven reserves can stay the same, increase, or decrease every year as production increases or decreases, and as resources are converted to proven reserves.
The annual USGS Commodities Report is one report that provides data on the proven reserves of different commodities
Reserves are deposits that have been discovered, evaluated and assessed to be profitable (copperalliance.org)
[Using the example of phosphate rock] “Reserves” refers to the amount assumed recoverable at current market prices … (wikipedia.org)
Other Notes
nickelinstitute.org also defines resources and reserves, and outlines the difference between the two
As copperalliance.org indicates – ‘The future availability of mineral is based on the concept of reserves and resources’
Why We Might Never Run Out Of Some Mined Resources
Some of the reasons we may not run out of mined resources in the near future might include:
1. Exploration Can Lead To Newly Discovered Resources
Beyond proven reserves, there’s both the undiscovered and discovered resources.
Investing money into new exploration can help increase the amount of discovered resources.
Lithium resources are an example of resources that have increased with additional exploration
Another example is helium, where there have been helium pockets that have been discovered in some countries that weren’t previously known to exist
Another example is Zinc …
In 1950, the USGS estimated global reserves of zinc at 77 million tonnes (Mt).
In 2000, the US Government announced reserves were up to 209Mt [because of new testing and exploration].
Read more in the mining-technology.com resource
Another example is with tin, copper and iron ore …
Tin, copper, iron ore and lead have all experienced similar increases as zinc
Read more in the mining-technology.com resource
2. Proven Reserves Can Stay Stable Or Increase Over Time As Discovered Resources Are Converted To Proven Reserves
Newly discovered resources can be converted to proven reserves if they become assessed as physically accessible with today’s technology and extraction processes, and if they are economically feasible to extract.
The impact this can have is that proven reserve levels can either stay the same or increase, even as production from mines continues.
When it’s reported we are running out of a particular resource, it’s usually based on the reserve amount, and not the total resource amount.
All three of coal, natural gas, and oil have seen their proven reserve levels increase at various stages over the last few decades
It might be said that if proven reserves were consistently trending down for decades without any increase, this might be a cause for concern in regards to resource depletion. However, this has generally not been the case at this point in time for major resources.
Diamonds are an example of a resource that has seen increased reserve totals over the last decade – some sets of data show that global diamond reserves increased significantly from 2010 to 2021.
3. Proven Reserves Can Stay Stable Or Increase Over Time As New Technology Or New Extraction Processes Are Developed
In addition to newly discovered resources being converted to proven reserves, existing discovered resources can be converted to proven reserves where they couldn’t be before where there is development in new technology or new extraction processes that allows previously inaccessible or economically unfeasible resources to be extracted.
One example of this might be a new method of drilling that allows previously inaccessible resource to be reached.
Deep sea mining and extraction (in waters deeper than a certain distance) may be another example of a type of mining that may be developed in the future to enable access to resources found in some parts of the ocean.
4. Unconventional Resources & Non Primary Resources May Be Used For Production For Some Resources
In the case of unconventional resources, unconventional oil resources, and also unconventional natural gas resources can be used for the production of oil and natural gas respectively (although, there can be challenges with using these unconventional resources)
In the case of non primary resources, natural gas can be used for the production of helium (although, it tends not to be as profitable at this stage), and there’s plants, as well as processing and production facilities available that may help extend the supply of helium resources
Additionally, there might be a range of potential ways to produce rare earth metals that are being explored with pilot plants and different projects.
5. The Right Ore Production Factories Might Enable Low Quality Ores To Be Part Of Production
Some reports indicate that there isn’t enough quality ore available in the remaining resources to extract and use.
But, ore quality might not be as important as long as the right type of ore factories being built to produce forms of particular ores
An example of a mineral with different forms is the different forms of nickel you can produce from different factories.
6. Some Resources Can Be Used More Efficiently At The Consumption Stage
More efficient use of resources gives a greater output for the same amount of resources, and helps with sustainable resource management.
Uranium for example might be used more efficiently in certain reactors, or when using new reactor technology, processes and practices, and this has the effect of extending uranium supplies.
Blockchain and AI are two types of technology that are also claimed by some sources to help improve the efficient use of some resources in different ways as they keep developing.
But, they may also come with negative impacts on sustainability and different tradeoffs
7. Some Materials & Resource Can Be Recovered, Recycled (Or Re-Purposed), & Re-Used
The recycling of some metals is one example of this
The processes or technology associated with managing e-waste may also be improved or developed to recover metals like gold and silver (and other metals) at a greater rate than what they currently are from this type of waste (there may be a lot of silver for example in landfills in waste like e-waste)
Modifying product design may be another way to make resources easier to recover and recycle from certain products
[Efficiently using metals, designing and manufacturing products more efficiently and with sustainable use of metals in mind, and recycling metals from products with metal in them – can all help with the sustainable use of metal resources] (bbc.com)
8. Substitute Resources & Materials Exist For Some Resources
Several minerals and metals have substitute materials that can fully or partially be used in place of them in certain applications
The annual USGS commodities report often identifies substitute materials for specific commodities and metals
Substitute materials though can sometimes have tradeoffs in cost and/or performance
An example of a mineral being replaced with a substitute is Cryolite being replaced: ‘… cryolite’s use as a flux has largely been supplanted by synthetic sodium aluminium fluoride, produced from the common mineral fluorite’ (mining-technology.com)
9. Alternatives Exist For The Applications Some Resources Are Used For
In addition to substituting materials, it’s possible to use alternative methods for whatever application a mineral is being used for.
As one example, generating energy from fossil fuels may be replaced partially or fully with an alternative form of energy generation, such as from renewables.
10. Price Increases May Ensure A Resource Is Available At A Higher Price Instead Of Physically Running Out Or Depleting Past A Certain Level
As a resource gets more expensive to extract (because mining, extraction or production costs increase), or, as there’s more competition for remaining resources, the price for that resource generally increases.
As the price increases, less of the resource can be bought for the same amount of money, or, less consumers have financial access to the resource.
This price mechanism might be one form of protection against a resource being physically depleted too quickly, or at all.
A paraphrased summary from bbc.com:
[Whether a metal or mineral will run out is the wrong question to be asking]
[Something you have to consider is that as metals and minerals become harder to economically to mine for a profit – supply prices increase]
[A supply price increase past a certain point means we have to find substitute resources or design and manufacture products a different way to use different resources]
[The market always adapts to how economically available a metal or mineral is to extract and produce]
[Scarcity … becomes a question of availability than of actual physical reserves, and that availability can be influenced by a variety of forces]
[Metals and minerals may never run out – but, they may become out of reach/economically not viable to extract and produce]
forbes.com points out something similar …
They indicate that some resources can be recovered and recycled, and used again in the economy
However, beyond that, resources won’t ever really be exhausted. Instead, they will simply become increasingly more expensive to extract and produce (as the extraction activity to collect a resource becomes more costly), and therefore more expensive for consumers to buy too
They give examples of one or both of these points with gold, phosphorus and potassium, and also oil and gas
Using the example of nickel, some reports indicate that if primary production of nickel continues to increase year on year, the impact of depleting nickel reserves from this production rate may mean that the services and products that contain nickel may start to become unaffordable and unattainable to some
Another example of how price can impact recoverable resources is given in our guide about the world’s uranium resources
11. Estimates On How Many Years Worth Of Specific Resource Are Left Are Estimates Only, & Not Definitive
There’s several potential reasons for this, such as proven reserves changing year to year, production rates change, consumption rates changing, and so on.
Proven reserves data coming from different third parties or countries themselves can also be disputed or come into question.
In our guide on how much rock phosphate and phosphorus might be left, we identify that the reserve quantities from some countries are debated/disputed for various reasons.
Accuracy of information, and provision of all information needed to make reliable reports on reserves totals, factor heavily into how much of any resource is actually left to extract and use.
Additionally, it can be truly guarantee how much of a specific ore or mineral there is in the ground until geological examination has been completed, and even then, the reliability of the information has limits.
What Might Be Some Legitimate Concerns About Resource Management Going Into The Future
1. The Price At Which A Resource Can Be Purchased Or Consumed May Be Unaffordable For Some
There’s a range of factors that can impact the price of a resource.
Some of those factors include expensive exploration costs (it can cost millions, tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions of dollars to do qualification, testing and explore new resources), expensive extraction costs, and competition for limited resources made available on the market pushing up prices.
As the price rises higher, it might be argued that either less of that resource is available to individuals than it was before, or, there may be a % of the population that starts to be priced out from getting access to that resource or the products and services that use it.
Some might question the social impact this may start to have.
2. Some Existing & Newly Discovered Resources Are Currently Physically Inaccessible, & May Never Be Accessible
Total discovered resources can sometimes be misleading when assessing how much of that resource can be converted to proven reserves.
The reason for this is that even though there may be a significant amount of that resource that has been discovered, a certain % of those discovered resources may either take a very long time to develop the technology or processes to access them, or, never be accessible.
Resources very deep in the ocean or in other parts of the world with extreme physical conditions may be examples.
3. Some Existing & Newly Discovered Resources Aren’t Currently Economically Feasible To Extract Or Produce, & May Never Be
Similar to the above point, some discovered resources may not be economically feasible to extract in the near future, or may never be economically feasible to extract.
An example of this might be a resource that is abundant on Earth or in the ocean, but only in very small trace amounts, or that where the resources are spread far apart.
This is as opposed to being clustered together, or found in large, concentrated deposits in one area (i.e. they are economically extractable quantities as a result of mountain building, erosion, or other geological processes.).
Uranium for example is found in very small trace amounts in seawater.
The way some mineral or metals clump can make them more expensive to extract by default too.
Rare earth metals for example can be more expensive to extract because they tend to clump together naturally, and need to be separated at the extraction stage (which can be difficult, expensive and complex).
4. Other Miscellaneous Reasons
Reasons other than those listed above.
Some examples include …
– Terminal Decline Of Reported/Tracked Commodities
According to mining-technology.com, terminal decline may be an issue:
‘For some commodities there are long-term trends of increasing or decreasing use but the phrase ‘terminal decline’ suggests an irreversible change that ends in zero use − this has not happened for any of the 90+ commodities tracked by the USGS
… the production or consumption of a particular commodity may go up or go down, but in no case has the world run out of minerals’
– Not Having Suitable Substitute Materials, Or Feasible Alternatives To Certain Resources
From bbc.com:
[A lack of substitute resources for a particular metal and it’s use could be a problem in the future … of the 62 metals that exist … twelve of those metals have no substitute at all for their major uses, and none of the 62 have a substitute available to cover all of their uses … and, decrease in performance is a concern for substitutes]
Factors That Might Impact Our Ability To Extract & Use Resources In The Future
Some of the factors that can impact our ability to extract and use resources into the future can include, but aren’t limited to:
– Annual demand and consumption
Lithium for example might see an increase in demand as more electric vehicles go into operation on roads
Other factors such as a growing population or human overpopulation may play a part in the future too
– Annual production
As production levels change (as well as intensity of production), the rate of depletion of proven reserves of a resource change too.
– Investment in production, and increasing production capacity
Countries can invest in production to increase production capacity to meet demand, however, there may sometimes be limitations in peak production capacity
– Investment in exploration and discovering currently undiscovered resources
Increases the total amount of resources that can potentially be converted to reserves
– Whether or not unconventional resources are used for production
Increases the total amount of resources that can potentially be converted to reserves
– Whether proven reserves are increasing, decreasing, or staying stable over the medium to long term
Might be one indicator of the production and consumptions levels we can sustain year to year
– The development and introduction of new extraction processes and technology
This allows previously inaccessible, or previously economically unfeasible resources to be extracted
– Prices of resources
The higher the prices, the more resources that can be extracted at a higher extraction cost, or, the more that physical resources are protected as more buyers are priced out of buying them
– Whether a mineral or ore can be mined by itself, or whether it’s mined as a by-product of mining other minerals or ores
For example, in 2016, one report indicates that approximately 60% of cobalt mined was as a by-product of copper, 38% as a by-product of nickel, and the remaining 2% from primary cobalt mines.
So, cobalt might be dependent on the mining of other metals
Whether or not this impacts the extraction of cobalt in the future is a question worth asking
The Difference Between The Amount Of Resources Left, & The Supply Of Resources In The Economy
These are two different things.
The amount of resources physically left on Earth doesn’t take into consideration bringing those resources to market where there is demand for those resources.
Supply of resources on the other hand does take into consideration economic factors and other factors that impact supplying those resources to the market where there is demand.
When discussing supply of resources, there could be a shortage or a supply deficit in a given year for example (a temporary short term shortage), but this isn’t necessarily caused by there not being enough resources physically available on Earth.
Supply of resources in the economy to certain countries and individuals (either over the short term, or more chronically over the long term) is impacted by different variables and factors, including but not limited to:
– Resources being geographically abundant in one area more than another.
Countries with larger domestic reserves of certain resources may for example have a more reliable domestic supply of that resource, assuming they don’t export majority of that resource to other countries.
This can also impact how independent or reliant one country is on another for certain resources.
– Geopolitics and restrictions or bans on international trade
Importing and exporting conditions and restrictions for example
– Supply chain issues and disruption of the supply chain
Caused by world events, regulatory oversight, or something else
– Purchasing ability and purchasing power
Of different countries and regions
– Regional instability, and local economic and political policies.
Some regions and countries are more stable economically, politically and socially than others
And policies that impact resource supply and demand differ from country to country.
Just a few examples are environmental related restrictions on fossil fuel use, or, mining may be restricted or shut down in some places if environmental concerns are too great in one area.
– Other factors
In this guide, we link to a range of mined resource guides.
In some of those guides, we identify factors that may have contributed to recent supply shortages or supply deficits, such as increased demand, world supply chain disruptions, issues between suppliers and producers, and so on.
Short Term Supply Issues vs Long Term Chronic Supply Issues
Some supply issues are temporary or short term, such as a one year or two year disruption in the supply chain caused by an irregular event.
Other supply issues are more chronic, such as a country lacking natural resources and consistently having to rely on importing resources to meet a level of demand domestically.
Countries Who Own Or Supply Resources, & Countries Who Are Dependent On Other Countries Or Import A Large Amount Of Resources
Some countries are major suppliers of mined resources, whilst some countries are majorly dependent on the mined supplies from other countries.
It’s worth pointing out though – although a country might depend on another country for their mined resources – one country (or companies from that country) can own and control mining operations in another country.
So, the countries that own and control the mining operation are the ones with the most power – not necessarily the countries that have the resources geographically located in their country.
To say this another way, whoever controls access to a certain resource, has the power to control which countries can access that resource at any one time.
A few examples of many countries being reliant on one country for certain resources, might be how reliant some countries are on China for rare earths, and to an extent some precious metals …
From mining-technology.com:
Other countries are currently very dependent on the supply of precious metals out of China:
China is currently is the world’s largest producer of rare earth elements [more than 90% of rare earth production], and so a disruption of that supply for whatever reason would have profound effects on world markets and global industry
Some reports question China’s impact on rare earth supply in the future
From globalenergymetals.com:
China controls the majority of refined global cobalt output and is reliant on the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo] for over 90% of its cobalt supply
There is a strong possibility of future geopolitical risk in the DRC resulting in significant material disruption to cobalt output with potential for a serious global cobalt supply squeeze
Sources
1. https://fee.org/articles/no-were-not-running-out-of-minerals/
2. https://www.mining-technology.com/features/featuremined-into-extinction-is-the-world-running-out-of-critical-minerals-5776166/
3. http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140314-the-worlds-scarcest-material
4. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-these-six-metals-are-key-to-a-low-carbon-future
5. http://environment.yale.edu/news/article/metals-used-in-hightech-products-face-future-supply-risks/
6. https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2018/mcs2018.pdf
7. https://www.globalenergymetals.com/cobalt/cobalt-supply/
8. https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2018/mcs2018.pdf
9. https://copperalliance.org/sustainable-copper/about-copper/cu-demand-long-term-availability/
10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_phosphorus
11. https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/12/29/is-the-planet-really-in-danger-of-running-out-of-resources/?sh=3b4cdc17188d
12. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/mineral-commodity-summaries
13. https://nickelinstitute.org/en/policy/nickel-life-cycle-management/nickel-recycling/
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